“It is estimated that the surplus this year could reach 1.1% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), above the 0.8% foreseen in the State Budget for 2024 (OE2024)”, indicates the December Economic Bulletin.

The institution led by Mário Centeno points out, however, that despite this positive base effect, “the less favorable macroeconomic scenario places the balance forecast for 2024 at 0.1%”, close to the 0.2% forecast in the OE2024, delivered by the executive in October.

The Bank of Portugal (BdP) also forecasts a public debt ratio of 101.4% this year, 96.8% in 2024, 92.3% in 2025 and 87.9% in 2026.