“It is a decision that we note [that Portugal has been registering more expenses]”, but “we are not, at this moment, particularly concerned about the level of expenditure”, declared Paolo Gentiloni.

Speaking at a press conference in Brussels, during the presentation of the autumn economic forecasts, the official indicated that he took “note of the fact that, globally, there continues to be, in relation to Portugal, a very good budgetary situation”.

“In our estimate, Portugal will continue to reduce its debt ratio, reaching 90% in 2026”, highlighted Paolo Gentiloni.

“I remember, personally, when I celebrated with the then prime minister, who is now the [elected] president of the European Council, the fact that Portugal had fallen below 100% debt in relation to GDP”, said the commissioner.

In its autumn economic forecasts, the European Commission estimates public debt at 95.7% of GDP this year, which is expected to fall to 92.9% of GDP in 2025 and 90.5% in 2026.

In the document, the European Commission also predicts economic growth in Portugal at 1.7% this year and 1.9% in 2025, below the 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, estimated by the Government.

Brussels estimates GDP growth of 1.7% in 2024, 1.9% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, which compares with the forecasts included by the Government in the State Budget for 2025 (OE2025), which point to a growth of 1.8% this year and 2.1% in 2025.

Economic growth

“Economic growth in Portugal should gradually increase over the forecast horizon, supported by private consumption and investment”, while at the same time, it is expected “that global inflation will continue to decline, in a context of containing employment growth and of a marginal drop in unemployment”, indicates the institution in the document.

Furthermore, “Portugal’s public administrative sector surplus is expected to decline, with increasing pressures on current expenditure, together with fiscal policy measures that deteriorate the revenue balance,” says Brussels.

Still in these autumn economic forecasts, the European Commission reveals that it is more optimistic than the Government and predicts a budget surplus of 0.6% this year and 0.4% in 2025 in Portugal, above 0.4% and 0.3 %, respectively, estimated by the executive.

In the document, the community executive improves its forecast for this year's Portuguese budget balance in relation to what it had advanced in May when it expected a surplus of 0.4%, but slightly lowers the estimate for 2025, of 0.5% to 0.4%.