The current economic context is leading potential property
buyers to question if now is the right time to buy, or if it would be better to
wait until 2023.
A report by idealista has found that when it comes to buying
a home, most consultants believe that, despite the current circumstances, this
is a good time. Francisco Sierra, General Manager of Casavo in Spain and Portugal,
says that, if we analyse the historical correlation between Euribor and sales,
the rise in interest rates does not have a great impact on the number of
transactions.
“We believe that 2022 will continue to be a good year to buy
a property, as the measures promoted by the ECB to contain inflation will be
offset by increased activity from private and institutional investors.” He
states that, despite the fact that, as some reports point out, 2023 will be a
year marked by a 15 percent drop in sales, the real estate market will
stabilise.
Jesús Duque, vice-president of Alfa Inmobiliaria, told
idealista that in the next six months the economy could cool down, as a result
of the War in Ukraine and all the events it generated in the world economy,
such as the decision by the ECB to increase interest rates – which are expected
to continue to rise in the coming months. For the specialist, those who want to
buy should realistically assess whether a future increase in home loans could
have a very negative impact on their financial situation. And evaluate which of
the two options they prefer: whether to buy at a higher price and lower
interest or vice versa.
Should you sell now
or later?
Jesús Duque explains that in the coming months there may be more
difficulties in accessing housing credit, higher rates and in some cases
greater doubts about the job market. "My opinion is that anyone who can
sell now, and can't or doesn't want to wait a year or two to sell, should do it
now."
For 2023, Casavo foresees an improvement in the
sustainability of the real estate sector, motivated by the measures currently
promoted to contain inflation, whose effects we will begin to be seen in the
medium or long term. “That is why when we talk about the best time to sell a
home, we must highlight that we are at a particularly favourable moment for
this, which will continue throughout 2023 as a result of the current economic
context, which boosts sales in the face of increased credit”.
What will happen in
2023?
At Alfa Inmobiliaria, their vice president believes that in
2023 there will probably be better offers and lower prices to buy, but also
many families will have more difficulties in accessing a mortgage, and interest
will be higher. "This price drop could be for a short period of
time," he says.
He recommends that, especially for people who are
considering a fixed-rate mortgage, it is best to buy now, although you will
likely be able to find slightly lower prices in a few months.
According to analysis by Casavo, the rise in housing prices
due to the influence of inflation will be offset by the measures promoted by
the European institutions to combat this economic situation, giving rise to a
very positive scenario in the medium and long term. “Given the market
movements, we expect that the rise in interest rates will be accompanied by a
slight increase in sales, since housing becomes a “safe haven” in the face of
uncertainty”, he says.
One month ago I sat down with one of those „famous“ agents. Their wording was we excpect not more than 2% interest rates. Basically what I wanna say here is that they have no clue neither any MD of those companies. Their goal is not consulting but selling selling selling.
By Fg from Other on 06 Oct 2022, 21:17
Never take guidance on the property market from people who make a living out of it. They'll always talk up the market, understate weakness and encourage people to keep buying, regardless of reality.
By Brian Kingston from Algarve on 07 Oct 2022, 08:44
Experts. Hilarious. Do the opposite and you will be in great shape
By Jason Richardson from Lisbon on 07 Oct 2022, 19:39
More lies from the property sellers. One day some one will tell the truth about Portugal and stop All this madness.
By J from Lisbon on 08 Oct 2022, 06:50
I think the golden visa rule has also caused a unrealistic rise for nationals as almost every new property comes with golden visa rules in mind. not long term sustainable for country with low minimum wages and growing interest rates, either going to have many unfinished homes and plots or many empty homes.
By hugo from UK on 28 Nov 2022, 12:20