The real question investors face is how these changes will play out—and the uncertainty is palpable. With his proven economic agenda, markets are preparing for a period of volatility and disruption.
“Trump's approach has long been known: tax cuts, deregulation, and a return to protectionist policies,” says Jake Mclaughlin, Executive Director of deVere Portugal, part of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
“The initial reaction will likely see rallies in certain sectors, but the long-term impact of these policies is difficult to predict. Investors should prepare for a new phase of unpredictable economic shifts and potential market turbulence.”
As we look ahead, the experts believe that both risks and opportunities will reshape the financial landscape from Porto to Beijing, from New York to London.
“Trump’s first term saw corporate tax cuts that fuelled a market surge, but inflationary pressures are expected to take centre stage during his second term. These rising pressures are likely to offset any initial euphoria from policy changes, and investors need to stay alert for the longer-term effects,” notes Mclaughlin.
A major driver of economic change is Trump’s promised $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan. His investment in infrastructure will likely stimulate demand, create jobs, and increase consumer spending.
On the surface, this may seem like a boon for businesses.
But the downside is that inflation will likely increase alongside the surge in demand. “By mid-2025, inflation could climb to 4-5%, which would place significant pressure on businesses and consumers alike. As prices rise, consumers will feel the pinch, and business margins will be squeezed.”
The US Federal Reserve is already walking a fine line, and we could see further interest rate hikes, which would make borrowing more expensive and heighten market volatility. This could create a difficult environment for equity markets, leading to unpredictable performance across sectors.
The deVere Portugal director continues: “Some sectors will likely benefit from Trump’s economic policies. Industries such as energy, infrastructure, and tech stand to gain from deregulation and the pro-business tax environment.
“However, for industries dependent on global supply chains, such as tech and manufacturing, rising costs could harm profitability. The increase in inflation and higher input costs will squeeze margins, making it harder for companies to meet their earnings targets.
“As a result, stock markets could experience increased volatility, especially in the second half of 2025.”
A stronger US dollar is another key element of Trump’s strategy, driven by fiscal stimulus and rising Treasury yields. While a stronger dollar could benefit US consumers by making imports cheaper, it will have negative effects on US exporters. The rising value of the dollar will make American goods more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing the competitiveness of US products in international markets.
Companies that rely on exports, particularly in manufacturing and technology, will see their profit margins shrink.
The consequences of a stronger dollar will be felt most acutely in emerging markets, especially those with significant dollar-denominated debt.
“As the dollar strengthens, these countries will face higher debt repayments, leading to increased financial instability. The resulting capital flight could exacerbate market volatility in these economies and create additional challenges for global investors, including, of course, those who are resident in Portugal.”
Trump’s renewed focus on protectionist trade policies will add further complexity to the global economic landscape. Tariffs and trade wars were defining features of his first term, and there’s little reason to believe his second term will be any different.
Jake Mclaughlin warns that, “China and Europe are already on high alert, and retaliatory tariffs could disrupt supply chains and raise costs across industries. US companies with significant international exposure, especially in sectors like tech, automotive, and retail, will feel the effects as trade tensions rise.”
Even in the face of these challenges, there is one asset class that could thrive: cryptocurrencies. Trump’s support for digital assets, combined with growing institutional interest, positions Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for significant growth.
“Bitcoin, in particular, could surge past its current $90,000 price point, driven by investor demand for alternatives to traditional assets. As institutional adoption accelerates, Bitcoin and other digital assets could become even more mainstream, with investors seeking out assets less tied to traditional financial systems.”
As the financial landscape becomes increasingly volatile, the need for expert financial advice has never been more urgent.
This is a critical time for re-evaluating investment strategies and seeking professional guidance. Financial advice isn’t just an option—it’s an essential tool to face the turbulent economic waters ahead.
Now, more than ever, it is imperative to ensure that your investments are positioned for the potential risks and rewards that Trump’s second term will bring.
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You can contact Jake with any questions here: jake.mclaughlin@devere-portugal.pt or the deVere Portugal Office + 351 22 110 9071 or book a meeting with him here https://calendly.com/jake-mclaughlin/review