In the spring economic forecasts, the community executive maintains, compared to the February report, the forecast of a reduction in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) from 5.3% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024 and 1 .9% in 2025, reflecting a substantial slowdown in the prices of energy and other raw materials.

Brussels recalls that, in quarterly terms, the annual inflation rate reached 2.4% in the last quarter of 2023, but rose to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to base effects in the prices of energy products.

However, services inflation moderated at a much slower pace to 5% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2024, driven by “strong wage growth” and demand pressures arising from tourism-related activities.

According to the Commission, the expected increase in real wages and employment “should maintain some pressure on prices, leading to a much slower adjustment in services inflation”.

In the Stability Program, the Portuguese Government forecasts an inflation rate, measured by the HIPC, of 2.5% this year and 2.1% in 2025.