A recent study by the Business Roundtable Association (ABR) and consulting firm Deloitte, presented in early July, highlights how such a shift could significantly improve Portugal’s economic outlook. The study reveals that if these young graduates came back, Portugal could see a 1.6 billion euros increase in Gross Value Added (GVA), translating to a 0.65 percentage point rise in GDP growth (or 0.42 percentage points in GDP per capita).

Creating conditions to attract and retain these graduates at a rate of 19,000 per year, working in major companies, could bring Portugal close to the EU average growth trajectory. The study underscores the ongoing challenge of “brain drain” over the past 20 years, where approximately 1.5 million Portuguese citizens have moved abroad for work. Of these, one-third were young adults aged between 15 and 39 years. Furthermore, half of the young people aged 14 to 29 have expressed intentions to leave Portugal, with few considering a return.

Professor Pedro Brinca from Nova SBE conducted an analysis for ABR that estimates the return of these 194,000 graduates could add 1.6 billion euros to Portugal’s GVA. This increase would result in a 0.61 percentage point rise in GDP growth and a 0.42 percentage point boost in GDP per capita. Such a scenario could accelerate Portugal’s convergence with the Eurozone and the EU, bringing the expected dates from 2056 and 2060, respectively, forward to 2046—10 to 14 years earlier than currently anticipated.

In addition to the return of these young graduates, the study highlights the importance of scaling up startups and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) into large, global companies. Presently, Portuguese SMEs, which account for 99.9% of businesses, generate only 61% of the GVA. Conversely, large companies, which represent just 0.1% of businesses, employ 22% of the workforce and generate 39% of the GVA. In the EU, large companies account for an average of 36% of employment, compared to just 22% in Portugal. Bridging this gap could boost Portugal’s GDP from 265 billion euros to 309 billion euros (+16.4%), and increase GDP per capita from 25,400 to 29,300 euros.

This scale of growth, combined with the return of expatriate talent, would strengthen Portugal’s economic growth path and could advance convergence with the EU and Eurozone to 2033, a leap of 23 to 27 years. However, achieving this requires overcoming significant challenges in convincing those who left to return. The potential rewards are substantial, but it will take a concerted effort from society, businesses, and the government to create the conditions and opportunities necessary to turn this vision into reality.

Addressing the "brain drain" of the most qualified generation in recent history should be an urgent priority. Over the past 20 years, 1.5 million Portuguese citizens have emigrated, and of the 875,000 who left between 2011 and 2021, only 132,000 have returned—just one in seven. These young graduates are left disillusioned, and reversing this trend is crucial for fostering a more prosperous future for Portugal. It is essential that all sectors of society collaborate to create an environment where young talent sees a compelling reason to come back, ensuring that Portugal can benefit from the skills and enthusiasm of its brightest minds.

Author

Paulo Lopes is a multi-talent Portuguese citizen who made his Master of Economics in Switzerland and studied law at Lusófona in Lisbon - CEO of Casaiberia in Lisbon and Algarve.

Paulo Lopes