According to Sapo, since the pandemic, the prices of Robusta coffee, the variety most consumed by the Portuguese, in international markets have risen by more than 200 percent and have remained at high values.

“The increase in prices can be explained by the following traditional supply and demand factors, insufficient production in countries of origin, essentially Central Africa and Vietnam, which led to a record low in world stocks and a bigger demand by the industry”, “aggravating the issue”, pointed out the general secretary of AICC, Cláudia Pimental.

Resulting in the market price of Robusta coffee being “at the highest ever”, and climate change in producing countries is causing “drops in production”, which has impacted green coffee prices, reiterated the person responsible.

The “situation in the Red Sea and the impact on the trade”, where the Huthis have been attacking ships for months, which has increased transportation costs “causing a significant delay in the arrival of goods to Europe, including coffee”, are also among the causes for the increases, adds Cláudia Pimental.

Luís Lorena does not foresee the price of coffee decreasing any time soon. Of the two types of existing varieties, in Portugal “70 percent of coffee consumed is Robusta coffee and 30 percent is Arabica, at issue is the lack of Robusta coffee, which is due to high demand and low availability worldwide”, stated the broker.

The Arabica variety “is most consumed in Northern Europe and Robusta in Southern Europe”, with the price of the latter rising during the Covid-19 pandemic, where before this variety had the most competitive price.

In Northern Europe, they began to change the “blends”, from 100 percent Arabica to “a blend with a percentage of 5 percent, 10 percent or 15 percent of Robusta”, which increased the consumption of this variety, therefore, decreasing its availability in the market, leading to a hike in prices.

Previously, the amount of Robusta consumed in the 27 European countries was around 39 percent” and Arabica at 61 percent. “In recent years, the value has become 46 percent of Robusta and 54 percent Arabica”, stressed Luís Lorena. In 2020, Robusta coffee could be purchased “256 percent cheaper than now”, he emphasised.

Furthermore, “there are fewer Robusta-producing countries”, with Angola becoming the world's largest producer of this variety.

Countries surrounding Angola such as Cameroon and Ivory Coast have invested 100 percent in cocoa and have abandoned coffee”, ending the supply of Robusta from those regions, while in Uganda and Tanzania “the same levels of production from the past have been maintained”.

India, which is a producer with “brutal domestic consumption”, “has sold most of its coffee to the soluble industry in Asia”. While Vietnam “had a complicated harvest” and Indonesia lost 30 percent of its harvest in 2023 because of rain and bad weather.

The only alternative was considered to be Brazil, which produces Robusta in sufficient quantity but “is not very well accepted in Europe”, he concluded.