The
U.S. national debt clock at www.usdebtclock.org reads more than $30.73
trillion, which is clearly raising doubts about the ability of the Federal
Treasury to service it in a more distant future without new and huge portions
of the so-called "quantitative easing" in the form of coining more
digital Dollars. Yet, the value of the global reserve currency continues to
grow against a basket of the Euro, the British Pound, the Japanese Yen, the
Australian Dollar and other Greenback's rivals, so that gold prices have to
sink too.
The
Federal Reserve (Fed) accomplishes now quite an opposite mission of monetary
tightening to reduce the money supply in order to combat a hyper-high
inflation. It is preparing to raise the U.S. Dollar interest rates above 3% soon
in September, but the cost of servicing the national public debt is still below
this 3% due to extensive safe haven purchases of assets.
The
instinct of self-preservation, combined with investors' hunger for income above
inflation puts money directly in the hugs of "his royal nibs" the
Dollar. Yes, the problems of the American financial system are great, but they
are delayed even amid energy crisis. New lows for GBP/USD around 1.17 against August
10 highs near 1.23 promise more substantial reward for short-sellers of the
Cable too. Many other currencies are looking almost set for more failures, as
other central banks are not so quick and brave as the Fed is in terms of the speed
of interest rates hiking.
Another
technical dive of the single European currency under the parity, when EUR/USD
stopped at 0.9901 on August 23 added more financial institutions, businesses
and private investors to the enormous list of the U.S. printing press
customers. Many experts and some managers of large investment funds are now
running their mouths discussing high chances for the Euro to lose at least 3-5%
more, if not to drop well below the 0.90 round figure, bearing in mind such
kind of historic lows for EUR/USD at the dawn of the launching era for the
single currency.
The
current nearly 5% discounting on gold prices, compared to the highs of about
$1,825 per troy ounce on August 10, still does not
provide sufficient activity in gold-related investments amid the prospects of
greater potential profits from further positive moves of the U.S. Dollar
exchange rate also combined with approximately 3% yield in U.S.
Dollar-denominated ten-year public bonds or higher yields of some corporate
bonds.
Esperio analysts believe that any
new dips of gold futures, if it may drop again within the range of 3-5% lower,
could turn the pyramid of market attention upside down from bonds and the
Dollar in favour of gold, as soon as the discount in gold prices would be more
aggressive. The long-term prospects of investments into gold generally becomes
bright in the course of time against the cyclic inflationary spiral story.
by Alex Boltyan, Senior Analyst of Esperio
company